Fears of slow integration as EAC summit postponed

When Rwandan president Paul Kagame took over as chairperson of the East African Community (EAC) in February, it was clear the sail wouldn’t be smooth.

The tension between Rwanda and her two neighbours – Uganda and Burundi – were already high. For Burundi, it had already declared Rwanda an enemy state, but Uganda was still covering up the crisis that was brewing.

Three weeks after Mr Kagame took over the chair, Rwanda closed its border with Uganda and the silent war that had been going on for long came to the fore.

Since his assumption of office, Mr Kagame has not invited the heads of state for a summit. The first that he would have chaired on November 30, was on Wednesday postponed to a date that would be “communicated later.” This postponement created more speculation and concern about the future of the EAC integration process.

In a letter addressed to the EAC secretary general, Libérat Mfumukeko, announcing the postponement, Rwanda’s state minister for the East African Affairs Olivier Nduhungirehe said an unnamed president had written to Mr Kagame asking for a delay of the meeting.

“I have the honour to both inform you and request you to notify partner states that the above mentioned summit has been postponed to a later date in January or February 2020 due to a request by a member of the summit,” Nduhungirehe wrote.

Even after Mr Nduhungirehe’s explanation, there are questions being asked and these compound the already tense situation. There are fears that this could be a foreboding of the community breakup like it was in 1977.

But the Uganda’s State minister for International Relations Okello Oryem says the regional tension may delay, but it won’t disintegrate the community or undermine what has already been achieved.

“I don’t think these wrangles can disintegrate the EAC because these wrangles are not permanent, they can be resolved but the question is how soon,” Mr Oryem says.

But he warns that the infrastructure projects that are supposed to be implemented under the EAC may end up becoming more expensive because of the rising costs.

“The projects that are supposed to be implemented now will be more costly in the next four or five years because the prices of goods and services will have increased,” he says.
Mr Oryem also argues that what will save the community this time is the realisation of the member states that they need each for economic survival.

“At that time [1977], the member states were not concerned about inter-trade and commerce. But, currently, the states need survival through revenue collection and even for the survival of their people,” he argues.

To some extent, Mr Oryem’s argument holds, but political interests prevail over economic interests. That’s why Rwanda can close the border and care less about the survival of its people who depend on Ugandan goods and services.

This has affected trade between the two countries which has reduced from more than $300m (Shs1.1 trillion) to $73m (Shs270b) since the border closure.
Uganda is now looking at the DR Congo as an alternative market to compensate for the loss of the Rwandan market.

Kagame speaks out
In a video posted on YouTube this week, when president Kagame was asked about the future of the community at a press conference in Kigali, he said lack of a meeting is not an indication that there is a problem.

“The East African Community has made good progress and it continues making good progress. But people are right to say the progress is slow. I wish we could move faster. I wish we could be over with many things that stand on our way to be where we want to be,” he said.
He blamed the slow integration process on different interests. “At times people will say different things and also bring non issues and create problems. But that’s what happens with people, politics and interests.”

“For us to achieve broader and deeper integration, people have to keep working at it. Some of these differences do not make sense because East Africans have a lot in common than the differences they have,” he said, adding, “If you have concerns that make sense, people can sit down and talk about them. It’s not an easy task because integration is about walking in and getting everything you want.”

Contrast
Mr Kagame’s one-year tenure as chairperson of the EAC is a complete contrast of his successful term as chairperson of the African Union where he introduced radical proposals that have been described as good reforms for Africa.
He spearheaded the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and strongly pushed for a move to wean Africa from financial dependency on Western funding.

To have a successful term in Addis Ababa and a disappointing one in Arusha – his backyard – must be quite disappointing to Mr Kagame. More so when he is a protagonist in the tensions that caused the problem.

But he says “integration is not something automatic. It means having different entities coming together with a common goal.”
According to Mr Kagame, many other meetings of heads of institutions have been going on in preparation for the summit which will take place next year.

For Burundi, the feud with Rwanda got even worse after president Pierre Nkurunziza declare Rwanda an enemy state.
Burundi has accused Rwanda of training refugees to destabilise the government of Nkurunziza, and Rwanda also accuses Burundi of supporting the FDRL rebels who have been operating in the DR Congo since 1994.

There were also reports of Burundi deploying troops near the border with Rwanda on Monday after Burundian troops were ambushed by rebels.
With such episodes, the EAC protocols have been violated. In November 2018, Burundi announced at the last minute that it would not attend the EAC summit because of its differences with Rwanda and the meeting had to be pushed to February this year when President Museveni handed over the chair to president Kagame.

The news of this embarrassing postponement reached presidents Uhuru Kenyatta of Kenya, John Magufuli of Tanzania and Museveni, who was then chairperson, who were already in Arusha for another meeting.
It was after this embarrassing postponement that some voices started calling for an amendment of the treaty to allow the summit take place if one member state is absent.