Museveni holds close to chest new Cabinet list

On Monday this week, President Museveni hosted topmost officials of government at State House Entebbe in what was the first such meeting on record.
Vice President Edward Ssekandi, Speaker of Parliament Rebecca Kadaga, her deputy Jacob Oulanyah, Chief Justice Bart Katureebe and Deputy Chief Justice Alfonse Owiny-Dollo, were joined by Prime Minister Ruhakana Rugunda and ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) party secretary general Justine Kasule Lumumba in the visit to the President.
The meeting was first brought to the attention of the public by a tweet off Speaker Kadaga’s twitter handle. The ruling NRM party’s account also tweeted about it, but the presidency did not issue any communication about the meeting.

In her tweet, Ms Kadaga referred to what had happened as a “landmark” meeting, and speculation was rife about what issues prompted the President to summon the top hierarchy of government. In the meeting, sources close to those who attended told Saturday Monitor that the discussions centred on the general workings of government and the ruling party, with the President expressing worry about infighting among top officials.

To the heads of the Judiciary, sources said, the President repeated his complaint on the need for “hardcore criminals” to be kept in jail for longer periods, pointing out a case of former soldiers who were convicted for a crime, handed ‘short’ jail terms and got back into crime shortly after release from prison.
As the attendees left State House, it is apparent that many, if not all of them, felt that was perhaps the last such meeting they will attend as the same group, occupying the same positions.
The feeling that it is a time for change within government and ruling NRM party is so commonplace.

Status quo
President Museveni has let the current Cabinet line-up stay in place for three-and-a-half years, which he had not done in a long time, for he nearly always made changes to his team midpoint in his five-year term of office. However, this term has been different.
He had the small matter of removing the stumbling block to his continued rule with the 75-year upper age cap for presidential candidates to deal with in the first place.

Speculation was rife that after the removal of age limit was confirmed by the courts of law, President Museveni would shuffle the Cabinet and likely reward those who had seen through the assignment.
But then new challenges arose. Kyadondo East MP Robert Kyagulanyi, better known by his stage name of Bobi Wine, burst onto the political stage, threatening to wrest the youth vote from the President come 2021 polls.

To the President, the calculation became complicated about the calibre of people he would need in his electoral war room.
For in the anticipated line-up, was he to reward loyal cadres or look to bring into the fold those who would deal with new threats such as the one presented by Mr Kyagulanyi, and old threats still presented by the likes of Forum for Democratic Change’s Dr Kizza Besigye, or would he balance both in one team?
Sources said a lobby has also developed around the President that is pushing for the government to get in younger cadres; the current average age of full Cabinet ministers being 65. But is the President ready to appoint a prime minister, for instance, who is in their late 30s or 40s?

That is not all. Faces in the top echelons of power, for different reasons, have to change in the coming months and few years. Sources knowledgeable about the workings at the top-most level said for instance, President Museveni has tabled before Speaker Kadaga his intention to make her Vice President.
Vice President Ssekandi, 77, has, according to multiple sources, already informed the President that he would like to retire. Mr Ssekandi is reportedly considering not running again for the Bukoto Central MP slot in 2021, but that he will let his boss make the final call.

Diffusing disagreements
This development, sources said, has got the President thinking that he has the opportunity to diffuse an ongoing feud between Speaker Kadaga and her deputy, Mr Oulanyah. Mr Oulanyah had intended to challenge Ms Kadaga to the Speaker job in 2016, which left his boss angry, accusing him of impatience and worse.

Ms Kadaga, who had by then served as Speaker for one term, said Mr Oulanyah needed to let her serve a second term before he considered a shot for the top job in Parliament, for she had also let her predecessor, Vice President Ssekandi, serve two terms before she became Speaker. Ms Kadaga was Mr Ssekandi’s deputy for the two terms.
Mr Oulanyah, who had already done some groundwork in preparation for competing for the Speaker slot, withdrew his interest and kept to his Deputy Speaker role. Sources said Mr Oulanyah now feels he has duly gone through the rites of passage to becoming Speaker and he is rearing to go.

However, the same sources said Ms Kadaga, even with the offer of becoming vice president on table, would rather remain Speaker of Parliament, for she sees the No. 3 job (Speaker) as more influential than the Vice President job (No.2). Sources said Mr Oulanyah is viewed by many in Parliament as the man to preside over the next Parliament, and that he has firmly set his eyes on the job.
In facing up to the worst case scenario of losing out altogether, sources said Mr Oulanyah often quips that becoming a backbencher would not be a very bad thing after all, since he would use it to contribute to what he sees as declining levels of debate in Parliament.
President Museveni seems to like Mr Oulanyah, and has reserved occasions to praise him publicly. The President has said in the past, among other things, Mr Oulanyah knows the law very well.

When Mr Oulanyah had just become Deputy Speaker, he was accused by some MPs and members of the public of elevating his being a member of ruling NRM party above his being Deputy Speaker, which got him to attend a ruling party caucus meeting with President Museveni at his country home in Rwakitura in Kiruhura District.
Whereas things such as this may earn Mr Oulanyah scorn from some circles, they should help to enhance his standing in the eyes of the President, if precedent is anything to go by. The President should, therefore, in theory, have no problem with Mr Oulanyah becoming Speaker of Parliament. But there is a problem, inside sources said.

Retirement
Justice Katureebe will be 70 years in June next year and retire. In the race to replace him, sources said, his deputy, Justice Owiny-Dollo, is ahead, at least according to what is reported to be the President’s preference. Apart from being No.2 in the Judiciary, Justice Owiny-Dollo is not a stranger to the system, having served in Cabinet in the 1990s before getting to the bench.
If Mr Oulanyah feels he has earned the right to lead Parliament, Mr Owiny-Dollo also feels he has done enough to succeed Mr Katureebe as head of the Judiciary.

The catch is that both men come from Acholi Sub-region, complicating consideration of regional balancing; something the President sometimes thinks about.
Sources said Mr Museveni is concerned about the possibility of having two men from Acholi Sub-region heading two of the three arms of government. Is it a possibility that Mr Museveni could let Ms Kadaga continue in her preferred role as Speaker after 2021, in case he keeps power, and elevate Mr Oulanyah to the vice presidency?

This, however, would still breed new questions regarding regional balancing. The question then is, should Mr Museveni replace Vice President Ssekandi with a non-Muganda, which position does he then compensate the Baganda with?
The same question would arise if he elevated Speaker Kadaga to the vice presidency, which is said to be his preferred option. In light of this intricate balancing act, it would appear that more faces than Mr Ssekandi and Mr Katureebe will soon fall out of the top echelons of power.

Could it be Dr Rugunda to give way?
A Cabinet source told this reporter that during a Cabinet meeting at the height of the debate on scrapping the age limits for the presidency, a female Muganda MP said in the presence of the President that she was tired of her position and preferred to become Prime Minister to ensure that the government moves better.
Dr Rugunda was elevated to become Prime Minister to replace his ‘friend’ Amama Mbabazi during the bitter fallout between President Museveni and erstwhile ‘friend’ Mbabazi. The current premier was a good proposition at the time, since he, like Mr Mbabazi, hails from Kigezi Sub-region. Mr Museveni was at the time fighting to keep the sub-region from falling to Mr Mbabazi, which he succeeded in doing.

Challenges hierarchy presents
Redeployment: In the lead up to 2021, sources who second-guess their boss, the President, said it might be time to move Dr Rugunda on to some other assignment. One assignment that a number of people we talked to said Dr Rugunda would be suited for is the Foreign Affairs docket, which many believe Mr Sam Kutesa will vacate in the next reshuffle.
Accusations: Mr Kutesa was accused by the authorities in the United States of taking a bribe from a Chinese businessman, Mr Patrick Ho, on American soil while he served as president of the United Nationals General Assembly.

Jailed: Mr Ho is currently serving a jail term in the United States over the same, although Mr Kutesa denies that what Mr Ho gave him, $500,000 (Shs1.8b), was a bribe. He said it was a donation for a humanitarian cause Mr Kutesa said he was involved in in his constituency.
Conflict of interest: Whatever the case, sources said, Mr Kutesa, an in-law of the President who is also thought to be his close confidant, is expected to be given another assignment when Mr Museveni eventually reshuffles his Cabinet since his work as Foreign Affairs minister has been complicated by the bribery accusations.

Experience: Whereas Mr Rugunda, one of the most experienced politicians currently in Cabinet that once represented Uganda at the United Nations, is seen as a natural fit for the position of Foreign Affairs minister, appointing him to the position would be a demotion.
Dilemma: The same situation would apply in the case of Mr Oulanyah. Sources said those who have run simulations for how the next Cabinet could look like have suggested to the President that the Omoro County legislator would do well as Attorney General. But that would be a demotion, for in terms of hierarchy, the Deputy Speaker is No.4, only after the President, Vice President and the Speaker.

Limitation: But President Museveni is running out of time as the clock ticks towards the 2021 election. He has the double challenge of crafting a team that won’t rattle the already fragile internal cohesion within his team and is at the same time able to deliver electoral victory. Sources close to power said the veteran political juggler is sweating over the task.

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