Election rigging: What really took Museveni to the bush?

It’s exactly 30 years when Gen. Elly Tumwine fired the first shots that started the five-year guerrilla war that later brought the NRM to power in 1986. Months before the attack in February 1981, Mr Yoweri Museveni, a quasi intellectual warrior, had warned that he would go to the bush if the 1980 elections were rigged.

Indeed Mr Museveni, the leader of Uganda Patriotic Movement who lost the presidential elections to the Milton Obote, made good his promise. But was it really election fraud that forced Mr Museveni to go to the bush or did he have plans and the alleged rigging of elections was just an excuse?
It’s him who knows whether he would not have gone to the bush if had the elections to be free and fair.

However, there is no doubt that at then, there was anarchy - rapes, murders, kidnappings, and extra-judicial killings by soldiers and therefore the need to restore sanity was necessary. The only way to restore order, according to Mr Museveni, was to flash out the warring groups using the gun. He used the gun to demystify the gun that had been used by the soldiers to kill and intimidate the population.

General discontent
However, had it not been anger, resentment and the general discontent that had brewed among the populace, especially in Buganda, the Luweero war would not have succeeded. It was the civilian population that fed, hid and guided the NRA rebels. Mr Museveni, the rebel leader then, succeeded mainly because he was able to understand that ruling Uganda depended on playing each of the major political factions against each other. Probably that is why he chose Buganda as the operational area.

Although the prevailing political atmosphere at that time provided a fertile ground for a rebellion, Buganda’s hate for Obote and his forces was much bigger than anything else. The Baganda saw Obote as a traditional enemy because they accused of exiling their Kabaka in 1966 in the aftermath of the 1966 crisis. That was why Amin who overthrew Obote mobilised Buganda’s best and brightest brains to provide intellectual fodder for his regime. Many prominent Bganda, including the then DP leader Ben. Kiwanuka, had a role in formation and sustenance of Amin’s regime.

After five-years of the guerrilla war, the NRM/A captured power in 1986. However, 30 years later, big fallouts of comrades as well as reneging on key promises, have revealed so much more about the war than would have been known had things gone smoothly. The revolution has lost the support it used to enjoy in much of the 1980s and 1990s. Instead, the continued stay in power of the NRM is inviting sharp criticism, including from people who actively participated in the struggle such as Col. Kizza Besigye and Maj. Gen. Mugisha Muntu.

Gen. Muntu says he does not regret having participated in the NRA bush war. However, he blames President Museveni for diverting from the principles that took them to the bush. Although threats from rebel groups across the country seem to be no more today, still the opposition and Mengo establishment remain threats to Mr Museveni’s government. Buganda which welcomed and accommodated Mr Museven and his colleagues during the bush war, is now on a collision path with his regime. Mengo claims that President Museveni has reneged on the promises he made to Buganda before this war was launched but President Museveni dismisses the claim.

The NRM government reads in such claims ingratitude considering it has restored kingdoms and returned some properties demanded by the Mengo establishment. Former comrades turned strong critics of Mr Museveni say they cannot working under a regime that has thrown aside the very reasons they fought for. Forum for Democratic Change secretary for defence Maj. John Kazoora says he regrets why he participated in the struggle.

“When I look back I see a lot of sadness and regrets. When I remember my colleagues who were killed in Singo and Bulemeezi during the war, I see wasted blood. We went to the bush to fight election rigging but elections are being rigged everyday. There is corruption everywhere. If those who died rose up today, they would be very disappointed with Museveni,” he said. Maj. Kazoora says Mr Museveni would still have gone to the bush even if elections were not rigged.

“We have been told that Museveni wanted to go to the bush in 1966 but was stopped by Mzee Kahigiriza (former Ankole prime minister) because his dream since childhood was to capture and remain in power,” he said. However, NRM deputy spokesperson, Mr Ofwono Opondo says the regime is still on the right path and instead accuses the opposition of bias.

“If they (opposition) say elections have been rigged, would Muntu have gone to the East African Legislative Assembly? Those who say there is corruption, they are corrupt and have been to prison for stealing. It’s on record that Kazoora stole Shs13 million meant for power from Busunju to Kakajo,” he said.

Mr Opondo, however, admitted that corruption is a big problem and is undermining the regime. Yes, there are problems, especially stealing of government funds but the country is on the right track,” he said.

Succession issue
President Museveni has remained the only “bull in the kraal” and this has created speculations and uncertainty. This is why some people are speculating that Mr Museveni is grooming his son, Lt. Col. Muhoozi Kainerugaba, to succeed him. The notion by the NRM supporters that leaders emerge, not groomed may be true but how come those who have emerged have exited the party? If you look back 15 years, all politicians who were seen to be potential Museveni successors have left the NRM. They include Eriya Kategeya (who goes and returns), Bidandi Ssali, Kizza Besigye and Amanya Mushega.

Building army
Today, the UPDF boasts of being a modern army with about 50,000 personnel - divided into land and air force, which is again categorised into several specialised units such as the armoured brigade, artillery, engineering, marines, special forces, motorised infantry, intelligence and other combat units.