FDC shakes from Besigye’s backyard

Dr Kizza Besigye’s only direct relationship with the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) at present is as mobiliser for Rukungiri District, and it is at this very spot where an earthquake shaking the Opposition party has originated in the middle of an election campaign. 

And the ongoing election campaign is not an ordinary one as far as FDC is concerned – it is the first time in the life of the party when FDC is not seen as the principal contender to wrestle power from President Museveni and the National Resistance Movement (NRM). 

No opinion poll numbers have been released so far but newcomer Robert Kyagulanyi, alias Bobi Wine, and his National Unity Platform (NUP) are widely seen as the biggest challengers for power against NRM.
It is at a time like this when the FDC would be expected to stick together and fight, but this does not seem to be happening as well as they would wish. 

Ingrid Turinawe, the party’s mobilisation secretary, broke ranks with her party and chose to run as an Independent, challenging for the Rukungiri Municipality MP seat.

Apart from Turinawe, former legislator Winnie Babihuga, who just as Turinawe did, competed in the FDC party primaries and lost, is also running as an Independent, challenging for the Rukungiri District Woman MP seat. She is tussling it out with the party’s Betty Muzanira, who is the incumbent and official party candidate having won the primaries. 

Also running as an Independent having lost the primaries is Darius Tweyambe, who is seeking to be mayor of Rukungiri Town.   

Different situation 
It is not the first time that FDC members are defying the party and contesting as Independent candidates after losing in primaries. But this time round, things are different, especially since it is happening in Rukungiri, one of the districts the FDC hopes to win.

 
It is a district FDC won at the presidential level in 2016, with Dr Besigye as the party’s flag bearer. He scored 50.40 per cent of the vote against Mr Museveni’s 48.29 per cent, according to the official results released by the Electoral Commission (EC). 
 
Of the four parliamentary slots available in the District, FDC currently occupies three - Rukungiri Municipality held by outgoing Roland Mugume Kaginda, Rujumbura County held by Fred Turyamuhweza, who is the party flag bearer hoping to retain it, and the Woman MP seat held by Ms Muzanira. They missed out on Rubabo County, which in 2016, was won by NRM’s Mary Paula Turyahikayo.

When FDC presidential flag bearer Patrick Amuriat Oboi campaigned in Rukungiri District just over a week ago, Dr Besigye was on hand to do his mobilisation work, making Rukungiri one of the very few areas Dr Besigye has appeared on the campaign trail this season.

But danger is brewing in the background. A number of FDC members we spoke to for this story fear that NRM could undo the gains that their party had made in earlier years in Rukungiri. 

They fear that the decision by prominent party members to run as Independents will divide the FDC votes and leave them open to defeat by the NRM. 

Rukungiri District has 16 sub-counties, and FDC members fear that huge huge expanse is likely to be hard for either Ms Muzanira or even Ms Babihuga to command, faced by the danger that NRM presents. 

The same fears cut through the other areas where they have their members running as Independents.

 They fear that since there will be elections throughout the country on the same day – January 14 – having FDC local blocs divided in favour of two rival candidates will strain their efforts and expose them to defeat.  

The three who have kicked up dust in the party have a long association with the struggles of FDC and even before. 

Ms Turinawe was there when FDC was formed, just like Ms Babihuga, and Mr Tweyambe was among those who were imprisoned for long periods, accused together with Dr Besigye of trying to overthrow the government using what security and intelligence at the time called the People’s Redemption Army.

Mafabi strikes
 Tension has been building over months but by a stroke of a pen, Nathan Nandala Mafabi, the FDC secretary general, this week opened a can of worms when he expelled from FDC those who lost primaries but decided to stand as Independents. 
 
The culprits are Babihuga, Tweyambe, who was defeated in the primaries by incumbent Charles Makuru for the Rukungiri mayoral seat, and Turinawe, who was defeated by the hitherto little known Dr Wallen Niwagaba Tumwiine.

In suspending the trio, Mafabi, who is also the Budadiri West MP, cited Article 12(d) of the party’s constitution, which stipulates: “If a member joins another party or in an election stands as an Independent, ceases to be a member of FDC.” 
 
Of the three, the ousting of Turinawe has raised storm the most. Turinawe’s association with FDC dates as far back as 2005 when the party was officially launched. 

She has risen through the ranks from an ordinary member to being the party’s chief’s mobiliser after leading the party’s Women’s League.  During the 2015 FDC party primaries, Turinawe tried once again to get onto the ballot for the Rukungiri Municipality seat on the FDC ticket but she was defeated by Kaginda. 
 
“It’s not the first time I’m being defeated [in FDC primaries],” Turinawe said in response to why she never conceded to Tumwiine. “But you have to ask yourself a question as to why I have reacted the way I have reacted.”

When Tumwiine clinched the FDC ticket in August, having got 123 votes out of the possible 130 votes, Kaginda, who was seeking a third term in Parliament on the FDC ticket, was quick to concede.  

“For us who have been in the struggle for long, there is no winning or losing in an election of the party,” Kaginda said.  He is now in charge of the campaign of the party’s presidential flag bearer Patrick Oboi Amuriat for the western region.

“I want to advise party leaders to avoid propaganda within our party. This is my second defeat ever since I started vying for various positons. The 62 votes I have gotten are by God’s grace. I will continue working and we shall support Dr Niwagaba. I and Turinawe have walked a long distance in bad and in good and the ugly, we have no challenge in losing,” he added. 

Clearly, Kaginda expected Turinawe to concede defeat but it never happened. 

Instead, Turinawe branded the entire process a sham, accusing Tumwiine of bribing his way to victory. 

But even as she is standing as an Independent candidate, Turinawe says if Mafabi had handled the issues she raised in the aftermath of the primaries, she wouldn’t be standing as an Independent. 
“We wrote petitions to Nandala and he never answered them,” Turinawe said in a telephone interview. 

“Now it’s too late. I’m standing as an Independent and I’m going to win. Nandala will need me. He should be very careful,” Turinawe said.

Turinawe claimed Tumwiine, who before his emergence as the party’s flag bearer had not been widely talked about within the echelons of FDC, used money to have FDC delegates to back him. This was the principal claim in her complaint. 

“I know the FDC constitution very well and I am not claiming to be an FDC member or candidate. Even my symbol is a chair, not the key [FDC’s official symbol].” 
    As much as she is aware of the clause Mafabi quotes in the letter that declared her a non-member of the FDC, Turinawe accuses him of applying the law selectively, citing two scenarios in 2015 before the 2016 General Election.  In Rubaga Division in Kampala, she says John Kikonyogo, the party’s current deputy spokesperson, stood as an Independent against the party’s candidate Joyce Ssebugwawo, who eventually retained the seat. Kikonyogo was never expelled from the party.  

Another example Turinawe cites is when former Gulu Municipality MP Christopher Acire and then party national vice president for northern Uganda Reagan Okumu fought for Aswa County.  

Acire, who is currently vying for the mayorship of Gulu City on FDC ticket, petitioned the High Court in Gulu, accusing the FDC’s electoral commission of hanpicking Okumu to run for Aswa County MP instead of holding a primary. 

The FDC leadership then argued that Acire should have sought to stay on as the FDC candidate for Gulu Municipality, which he represented and let Okumu continue in Aswa. 

But Acire insisted on running in Aswa and argued his right to compete on the party’s ticket.  
 Justice Margaret Mutoni declared that both Acire and Okumu should run as Independents since the party had not held a primary and it was out of time since the nominations had ended. 

Though FDC officials have previously explained that Okumu’s standing as an Independent was purely the decision of court and not his, Turinawe insists they never penalised him.

Nevertheless, various FDC officials interviewed for this story defended the actions of Mafabi on the matter, saying he never expelled the three but they left on their accord the moment they stood as Independents.  

“It’s the role of the secretary general to remind members of the party’s constitution,” Ibrahim Ssemujju Nganda, the party’s spokesperson, said. “In FDC, we have a constitution and it must be enforced.” 

When Amuriat campaigned in Rukungiri in early December, Turinawe squeezed her car among the vehicles that formed the entourage that welcomed him. This, according to sources within the party, didn’t go down well with FDC official candidates who reacted by petitioning Mafabi, asking him to come out clearly on the matter. 

“Many members were writing and complaining about Turinawe and that’s why Nandala had to write the letter to make things clear,” a source said.

Although she stands suspended, Turinawe remains popular within the FDC, with many coming out on Facebook to support her. 
“Selfless service is her code,” Doreen Nyanjura, the Kampala Deputy Lord Mayor, who doubles as the Makerere University councillor, wrote on her Facebook page.

Background

Besigye tight-lipped
Dr Besigye has not yet said anything on the matter and attempts to reach him for this story did not yield fruit by press time. 

He knows how divisive seeking elective office can be, and he often talks about it in private and publicly. He says for as long as people involved in the fight against Mr Museveni’s rule are looking to be elected to occupy political office, they are bound to fight and get divided. But he cannot stop individual ambition. 

But when players in FDC have fought for elective positions, Dr Besigye has refused to get sucked into the fight.

 Before the current fallout, Turinawe has tried to secure the party’s nomination for different positions, including the same Rukungiri Municipality seat, before and the East African Legislative Assembly. As she was starting out, she would expect Dr Besigye’s backing, and at one point complained when his support was not forthcoming and she was defeated.

 In 2012, when Dr Besigye was leaving as party president and Mafabi was up against Maj Gen Mugisha Muntu, Mafabi’s backers sought Dr Besigye’s support and even held their first rally in Kasangati near his home in Wakiso District. Dr Besigye, however, stayed home and did not attend Mafabi’s rally, much to the anger of the organisers.

 He insisted that the party members should make their decisions without him influencing it. 

The only time he seemed to side with a candidate in an internal party election was when Amuriat competed against Gen Muntu for the party presidency in 2017. 

Dr Besigye and Amuriat held joint rallies in different parts of the country, although Dr Besigye still said he was not there to campaign for Amuriat but to drum up support against the lifting of the age limit for presidential candidates. Different people interpreted this differently.

It’s now the party versus among others, Turinawe, who for a long time, has fought alongside Dr Besigye in the field and in the office. Will he intervene to broker a peace? While in Rukungiri, he takes the neutral stance as he usually does, won’t this hurt FDC?