Ray of hope as Covid infections fall

Uganda has registered a 77 percent decline in reported Covid-19 infections, four weeks after the government reopened the economy.

Between January 16 and January 30, the Ministry of Health reported a total of 2,929 Covid-19 cases, about a week after full reopening of schools. 

The reported number was four times less than the 12,713 cases reported in the previous 15 days (January 1 to January 15).

While announcing the full reopening of the economy on December 31, President Museveni had warned that some of the restrictions lifted would be reinstated if the Covid-19 situation overwhelms the health facilities. 

Health experts have given mixed explanations for the decline in infections, with some suggesting that the testing by the ministry is not targeting communities where the virus is circulating, but travellers who test for international health regulatory requirements.

Dr Henry Kajumbula, the head of infection control and prevention at the government scientific advisory committee on Covid-19, told Daily Monitor yesterday that the decline could be a result of warm weather and other factors.

“Warm weather, which is being experienced in the country at the moment doesn’t favour transmission of the virus. Also, many infected people are asymptomatic and they may not spread the virus,” he said. Coronavirus dies quicker when it is sunny, according to available scientific information. 

The Omicron variant, which has triggered the third wave of the pandemic, is associated with mild symptoms and a low risk of developing severe disease.

Dr Kajumbula, a Makerere University microbiologist,  said if people don’t have symptoms, their chance of spreading the virus also reduces.

“The increase in vaccination coverage could also be contributing to lower transmission because it reduces the chance of severe disease [developing Covid-19 symptoms],” the expert added.

But another scientist at Makerere University, who preferred anonymity, said the approach being used by the government to do Covid-19 testing is not giving the real picture of disease spread.

“The decline could be a result of limited testing. People who are being tested are those who are travelling and they are doing it because it is a requirement. If you walk out, you can see that there is no adherence to preventive measures apart from when you are going to church,” the scientist said.

But Dr Mukuzi Muhereza, a clinician in western region, who is also the former secretary-general of Uganda Medical Association, said the number of people presenting with Covid-19 symptoms in health facilities has declined.

“This corona, like flu, comes in waves and our bodies understand it and fight it better and then it [declines]. But it doesn’t disappear. It mutates and then comes back to attack us again,” he said.

Dr Mukuzi added: “As a clinician who sees patients on daily basis, I would test you when there are some alarm bells. Few people are coming with symptoms and these [reported] numbers are depictive of what is happening in communities. Even the positivity rate is down.”

Ministry statistics indicate that the Covid positivity rate has declined from 23.3 percent –its peak on December 31, to 1.6 percent as of January 31.

Dr Kajumbula said it is still being monitored whether the full reopening of the economy, especially the bars, will worsen the spread of infections.

Decline in deaths

The decline in reported cases has also been reflected in fewer deaths with 96 being reported in the last 15 days, stretching from January 16 to January 30. But the decline is not huge, given the 118 deaths reported in the previous 15 days, January 1 to January 15.  

Since the outbreak of the virus in the country in 2020, a total of 162,308 people have been infected, while 3,561 have died, according to Health statistics. 

About 12,696,741 doses of the Covid-19 vaccines have also been administered since 2021 out of more than 35 million doses the government has received.