Change in Uganda: More of feeling the heat than seeing the light

On one of those weekends where you just want to sit down and relax, I met a friend of many years ago at one of the major hotels in Kampala.

We last met some years ago on a busy Kampala street. It was such an encounter. He hurriedly greeted me.

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Then rather apologetically said he hoped I would understand why he feared associating with people who ‘bad mouth’ the government. The ones who are so negative that they don’t appreciate what the government does and make it seem like all is doom and gloom. He named Alan Tacca, Daniel Kalinaki, Kalundi Sserumaga, Timothy Kalyegira, and Charles Onyango-Obbo. Keeping such company might jeopardise his work. Off he went! He did not name me but I got the point.

Years later at the Sheraton Kampala Hotel, my friend was no longer in a hurry to run away from people whose association might jeopardise his work. I later got to know that there was no more work to put at risk. He was now acting like a pensioner waiting for a bus to give him a time-consuming, joy-ride.

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Without much ado he asked me, ‘do you see how things in this country are going from bad to worse?’ Then he launched a furious tirade about how ‘these people want all of us to become beggars so that they easily dominate us forever’. They are crowding us out of everything he said, then  on and on, he went.

I listened most of the time because there was nothing useful to add. These things were said years earlier. Now It is rather boring to listen to the ills of the NRM government. To many at that time, they sounded like the lamentations of sour losers.

When you talked about the abuse and autocratic tendency of President Museveni back then, you sounded cerebral and gallant. This is no longer the case, now that we have the revolution called social media.

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Back then there were very few people who stuck out their necks - partly because the economy was doing quite well. A person could afford to be apolitical and occasionally vouch for the government for its good policies that were responsible for macroeconomic stability despite ‘a few problems like corruption,’ which the government was seriously tackling.

Then time happened. Now many are seeing a different Uganda because overtime the system has become one of survival for the fittest. This has nothing to do with brawn or even with the brain.

When the NRM came to power 36 years ago it had to seek legitimacy by being inclusive in as many ways as possible. They absorbed politicians from the old political parties like DP and UPC. Though you had a de facto one party system that was called all inclusive, there was some legroom for maneuver. One could air divergent views in the relatively free media.

To kick start an economy that was battered after many years of war and civil strife, the donors poured money into the economy which created employment and vast corruption opportunities. Also because we were almost starting from zilch, anything one did was novel. You started a school, a hospital or clinic, a video library, a barber’s shop, a takeaway or eatery, a dry cleaning business, a washing bay, a janitorial company, a transport company, a law firm, a newspaper, a research outfit etc. you were assured of making money and living well.

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To motivate the citizens further and for the sake of patronage, there was very little or no regulation in most sectors. You fished as you pleased. A trader imported all sorts of goods including junk and made a killing. The farmer too had a ready market in the economy that had a good number of people earning.

Then there were the opportunities created by neighboring countries recovering from war and instability like the D.R.Congo, Rwanda and South Sudan. Uganda was their source of food and essential commodities giving many farmers and traders hope.

For many in the more populated South and East of the country, the absence of war was enough to remove any doubts about the NRM government. The people in the North thought otherwise, because of the deadly rebellion by the Lord’s Resistance Army, which raged on for about two decades. War has a bad habit of bringing the worst out of human beings. When these people complained about the abuse visited on them by the national army many were either not bothered or claimed it was ‘northerners killing themselves’. Worse still some said that the northerners were just bitter about losing power to Southerners.

There was a kind of free for all regime that blinded many to the ills of the NRM government.
With time though the righteous aura of the NRM wore off. Now it has in it’s own right a base big enough to confidently dominate the political scene. The power is so centralized and mixed up with the army, economy, the legislature plus the justice law and order sector that it makes one unsafe to be out of the NRM fold. The children, relatives and friends of the revolutionaries of 86 are of age.

They are now the first priority on jobs, contracts and all opportunities including the mundane like supplying chairs at functions. So those who are not ‘connected,’ can only wait for the crumbs.Yet money from the donor is not flowing as it used to so we have to now depend on taxation. The one who did not pay a cent in the good old days is treating this as an affront, for it eats into their take home.

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Fast forward to today. The economy has reached a certain point of saturation  where there is almost no room for another newspaper, takeaway, hair salon, washing bay etc. The housing boom of the last two decades also means that those who invested in real estate are now hanging on the seats of their pants. There are too many units to choose from.

The farmer too, has to accept that though there is demand for his produce, people under economic hardship may at times determine the price which is not favorable for the farmer.

Now many are waking up to a different reality. The people who would not be touched with a long stick for sounding like bitter pessimists back in the day can now be accommodated.

The heat caused by economic challenges has created an existential threat to many. It is risking their bread on the table. It is what is increasingly pushing many like my Sheraton friend to voice their opposition to NRM and try their luck abroad in places like Canada. It has very little to do with seeing sober minds seeing the light.

Mr Sengoba is a commentator on political and social issues
Twitter: @nsengoba