Coups: Business Generals replaced Republican Guards

Since military coups returned in West African countries like Mali, there have been increasing voices of ‘hope.’ In many countries, long-standing leaders are so entrenched that they have made it virtually impossible to leave through any other means especially the ballot which they manipulate. Now the coup is being looked at desperately as the ‘viable’ alternative.

But many will be surprised that this may not spread all over the continent. A coup is not only about disgruntled soldiers marching onto the presidential palace and capturing the State broadcasting house to announce a takeover.  

Success lies in two major constituencies. The first are the global powers that exercise hegemony over countries on the continent, especially the former colonial powers. Many of these have invested heavily in these countries tying them down with loans from which they earn a pile in interest. They also have unfettered access to natural resources and cheap primary products like minerals, oil, and cocoa.

The African country may also serve the interests of these global powers by putting its citizens in the line of fire; placing boots on the ground in wars of interest to the latter. We now also have the sub-contracting of hosting and providing safe havens for refugees that are not exactly welcome in the developed countries.

Should they feel that the African leader in power still serves these interests and many more, they will preserve and protect them. This includes financing social services like health, education, paying wages to government servants and building infrastructure to ensure that the people do not easily get agitated to cause instability.

On the other hand if the leader no longer serves their interests or has become a liability, or if a group of politicians from the country convinces these powers that they will serve those interests even better, they have the capacity to finance and support coups.

They may even use sanctions and other methods of economic sabotage to make social life unbearable thus leading to social unrest and eventually coups led by soldiers on the pretext of ‘restoring peace and social order’. This seems to be the cause of most of the coups in West Africa where France, the former colonial power, is at odds with some of the rulers.

The second and very vital constituency is the African army. With the economic dispensation of neo-liberalism, every man is to themselves. The government only provides policies and regulations. So the poorly paid soldier is left to compete for recourses on the market with other citizens. He ends up taking the bones. His children will get the worst education diming their future. He will live in the squalor, have nothing to retire to and die in the poorly funded government hospital. So this armed, impecunious fellow becomes a liability that may be triggered into coup plotting and making.

In the past what African strongmen did was to build around themselves a Republican Guard that was well paid and equipped to fight against the regular army and the people in case of a coup attempt.

Recent developments in the world have outdated republican guards as we knew them. Travel and financial restrictions targeting individuals mean they can only go so far in taking risks for the president. In cases like it happened in Egypt and Sudan, when they read the situation and see that the tide is firmly against the president, they either switch sides or simply look on as the government crumbles.

These have now been replaced by the phenomenon of the ‘business general’. This is a soldier who is encouraged to accumulate a lot of wealth. In many cases the soldier is left to even break the law so as to attain this. 

Late president Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe did it successfully. Generals Like Solomon Mujuru were extremely wealthy in one of the poorest countries in the world, with vast interests in telecommunication, mining, farming, and food processing.

You see this in various countries in Africa that boast of having ‘pro- people armies’. They have increasingly taken over major construction backed by orders from above, without going through biding or competitive processes. They are playing a leading role in the agricultural and fisheries sector where they run huge budgets and have extensive powers.

Since this is traditionally not the core function of the army, you are bound to have accountability issues that may be taken care of under the guise of classified expenditure.

In the past the tradition was to keep armies busy by fighting wars of all nature against separatists, tribes etc.
Now you keep the core of command and control in the middle of money, to distract them from other ‘mischief’ like democracy. They also take care for those under them to make some money at all levels. During the Covid-19 pandemic lockdowns they came on the streets and made money enforcing travel restrictions.

They end up getting tied up in the democracy of corruption as they take care of themselves and lose the moral authority to hold anyone to account. They become beholden to the government and the ruler in place when they are ‘allowed’ to grab land at times displacing villages and killing a few people. They will run untouchable enterprises helping them to compete in tight market situations.

Their influence will be rented out to powerful businessmen whom they protect in exchange for pecuniary gains. So you end up with soldiers whose property is not commensurate with their official meager earnings; owing many properties and educating their children in expensive international schools. They have become so pampered that they can’t be convinced out of their comfort zone.

To these sort of soldiers, rebellion or coup plotting poses an existential threat. Instead they will fight tooth and nail to maintain, augment and perpetuate the status quo.  This is not because they love the president more. So before you anticipate or pray for a coup in your own country, watch out for the existence and status of the business Generals.

Mr Sengoba is a commentator on political and social issues
Twitter: @nsengoba