Climate Migration: The silent but looming crisis

Last week, it was reported in the news that authorities in South Sudan had ordered that schools be closed for at least two weeks as the country prepared for a heatwave in which temperatures were forecast to reach a record 45 degrees Celsius. This is happening in a nation that has in the recent past been hit by severe floods and drought, all as a result of climate change, whose impact continues to threaten the livelihoods of many communities in Africa. In recent years, the world has witnessed a growing phenomenon that is reshaping communities, economies, and landscapes in what is termed as climate migration. The World Bank estimates that over 86 million Africans will be forced to migrate due to climate change by 2050. The figures go ahead to reveal that these movements could start in less than a decade if no prompt action is taken to address the issue.

This mass movement of people, driven by human induced global warming, environmental degradation, extreme weather events, and rising sea levels, poses a significant challenge to global stability and security. World Bank research estimates that by 2050, up to 28.6 million people could be compelled to move within the Lake Victoria basin countries due to climate factors. Uganda alone is estimated to have 12 million internal climate migrants, which is about 9 times the number of current refugees, which stands above 1.3 million. While for many years, African countries have dealt with a refugee crisis due to insecurity, we are likely to have a higher number of climate refugees if the issue is not given the deserved attention.

At the heart of massive climate migration will be stories of loss and displacement. From small island nations threatened by rising sea levels to drought-stricken regions grappling with food insecurity, the impact of a 1.5 degrees Celsius warming world are increasingly forcing people to make difficult choices about their future. Families are likely to be uprooted from their ancestral lands and livelihoods are at risk of being lost as many seek refuge in unfamiliar territories.

The impacts of climate migration are far-reaching and multifaceted, affecting not only the migrants themselves but also the communities they move into. Host countries may struggle to accommodate large influxes of migrants, leading to overcrowded cities, strained infrastructure, and heightened environmental pressures. The long term consequences of climate migration are grave, with implications for food security, public health, and regional stability.

As climate migration continues to escalate, there is an urgent need for coordinated action at the local, national, and international levels to address this looming crisis. Everyone needs to get involved in the climate change discussion, from religious leaders to cultural leaders, to students and to the ordinary citizen. Governments must prioritise climate adaptation and resilience measures to protect vulnerable communities and build sustainable livelihoods. Investments in renewable energy, sustainable agriculture, and disaster risk reduction are essential to mitigate the impacts of climate change and reduce the drivers of migration. International cooperation is crucial to support climate-affected African countries because, irrespective of being the least contributors to global warming, they are affected more by its impacts.

Climate migration is not just a future scenario but a present day reality that is reshaping the world as we know it. Millions of people face an uncertain future in a rapidly changing environment. The time to act is now—to address the root causes of climate migration, protect the rights of climate migrants, and build a just, equitable, resilient, and sustainable future for all.

Mr Jimmy Muhangi Bakesi is an economist