The ‘Congo File’ to dominate East Africa’s 2023 diplomacy

The East African Community welcomed the Democratic Republic of Congo with open arms. As a trade bloc, the Democratic Republic of Congo brought with it lots of opportunities and potential.

Because of DRC’s opportunities and potential, I remember remarking that it is the East African Community that was joining the Democratic Republic of Congo. In Kinshasa, the thinking was that joining East African Community would mitigate the never-ending suspicion between Rwanda and the DRC. This was not to be; because M23 happened.

And the Congolese authorities carrement (French: straightforward) accused Rwanda of supporting the M23 armed rebels. For a president who had genuinely sought some diplomatic security in the East African Community, it was shocking that a community member supported rebels fighting Kinshasa.

Kampala was ambiguous. For fear that open condemnation of M23 would expose Uganda to a confrontation with the Republic of Rwanda, Mr Museveni deftly chose to hide behind the façade of the East African Community. Knowing that diplomacy without the men of metal in these climes doesn’t work, Mr Museveni rallied the East African Community to raise a force. Good diplomacy (given the circumstances).

But then there was the then UPDF’s Land Forces Commander who riled the Kinshasa, Bujumbura and Nairobi. For the Congolese, no amount of diplomatic expiation would appropriately allay their negative take on the tweets of UPDF’s Land Forces commander.

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It is my personal take that M23 will have been sorted by Sunday December 31, 2023. As I have said elsewhere, remove the noisy diplomatic row between Kinshasa and Kigali, and the M23 will be denuded of the international attention they are getting.

When Operation Shujaa (a joint military offensive conducted by Uganda’s UPDF and DR Congo’s FARDC) was launched, I had some fears over the impact of such an operation on 2023 presidential elections in DR Congo. Now I hear some Kinshasa heavy lifters like Moise Katumbi, Martin Fayulu and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Dr  Mukwege are challenging the president for making the DRC a playground for foreign armies. I bet  that (the issue of foreign armies on Congolese soil) will be the main campaign issue of the presidential elections.

How will Mr Tshisekedi handle this during the campaigns? Which parts of the country will appreciate his efforts to pacify some parts of the country (by all means)? Were the politicians in Kinshasa merely playing politics when they accused their president of rendering the country a playground for foreign armies?

I am a member of a WhatsApp group that I always describe as “a group of angry Rwandan refugees”. So, in one of those chats, one of those angry guys posed a question: What if president Tshisekedi lost the 2023 presidential elections? I responded thus: the right question should be “what would Mr Museveni not do if  President Tshisekedi were to lose the elections?

Most of the day’s debates was spent on how Kigali would not allow Kampala to upstage it in Kinshasa. They (Kigali) would do anything if Kampala intervened in Kinshasa in a manner that reflects regional big brother. And dear readers, that was even before our friends in M23 made their recent resurrection.

As things stand now, regional power centres like Kampala and Kigali are going to focus on the presidential elections in the DRC. Pray hard that the two power centres do not find themselves on opposing sides. Otherwise, the Congo File will remain active on the agenda of the East African Community throughout this year. Any effort by the East African Community to end the unending conflicts in the DR Congo would be welcome. 

Mr Asuman Bisiika is the executive editor of the East African Flagpost. [email protected]