Nine teams, seven games and dogfight like no other in UPL

Acquaint yourself with the cliché “six-pointers” as we head into the final quarter of the 2021/22 StarTimes Uganda Premier League season. In simple terms, it refers to a fixture between two teams sitting around the same position.
The term is coined to stress the value of the three points when two teams – either battling for the title or relegation- face each other. In one sense, when one team wins the three points, casually, they are boosted by the three whereas their opponent loses the three and will need another three to catch up.
So, in the UPL, it’s that time of the season when clubs draw their calculators to do the mathematics at both ends of the table. Currently, Vipers at 49 points, lead the race for the championship with three games at hand and as it seems, they could run away with the title. 
However, as the action seems almost predictable at the top, there is a notable scrap down the exit door.
In the history of the current 16-team Uganda Premier League system that started in the 2011/12 season, no team has gone down after attaining at least 33 points.
 Simba (UPDF) and Lweza were relegated with 32 points in the 2015/16 and 2016/17 seasons, respectively. That was the highest. 
Based on this, it is safe to state that seventh-placed Wakiso Giants with 33 points and all the other six teams above them are guaranteed topflight football next season.
There are six points separating Gaddafi in eighth from the top seven. Bright Stars that occupy the 14th position has 20 points up to this point of the season meaning that only seven points – two wins and a draw – separate them and 8th team setting us up for a mighty relegation scrap with seven match days remaining. 
So, who has better chances of staying up?
Tooro biding and bidding their farewell
As it stands, Tooro United are only biding their time before bidding the league their predictable farewell after the obvious is confirmed. With two only wins, four draws, 53 goals conceded and a deficit of 36, the Fort Portal-based team are ripe for the drop. 
Their only positive up to this point is that they have scored 17 goals, at least more than Mbarara City and Bright Stars, their mates in the red zone.
The team appointed experienced tactician Ibrahim Kirya in January but has since managed five games fishing a draw and shock win over table-leaders Vipers that, unfortunately, was achieved with an ineligible player in Ronald Kayondo involved. 
The win was overturned.
Another time, Tooro would have been looking to fixtures against Gaddafi, UPDF and Bright Stars for survival fight but now it is those clubs looking up to Tooro as their six-pointer gold mine.

Glow or go, fate seems to tell Stars
It is hard to pick favourable fixtures that can save Bright Stars from the chop! They failed to win a game in their opening game before showing coach Baker Mbowa the exit. His successor Simon Mugerwa debuted with a win over Tooro United but managed only one more win over a weaker Villa in eight fixtures losing half the number before Paul Kiwanuka was recalled to steady the ship.
Kiwanuka has managed rare wins over KCCA and Bul but have staggered against fellow relegation candidates Police and UPDF at home. Their problems on the pitch are general – they don’t score goals but concede easily. Their top marksman Nelson Senkatuka has only five goals. The team has scored only 15 - the second worst record after Mbarara City- and has shipped in 27 – the 6th worst defence in the league!
They have a game at hand against an unpredictable KCCA but they have to capitalise on home advantage versus Busoga United, Wakiso Giants, Gaddafi and Mbarara City and Tooro United visit.

Caterpillars can crawl
Onduparaka was trapped deep in the drop zone until late December but have shown promising signs of late. 
The Caterpillars have crawled to two wins and a draw in their last four matches. That gave them space to breathe by about four points but not near safety. The Arua side will need to pull something special to get three wins from their schedule that starts with Vipers.
Their tally of 22 goals in 22 matches is worrying but with Shaban Muhammad leading their charge, they have a reason to believe. However, they will pray that he stays calm and focused. Shaban has scored 10 goals but has missed three games due to suspensions after accumulating nine cautions in as many games.
George Lutalo’s side will also bank on raucous home support to give them that final push when they host Vipers, Villa, Bright Stars and Arua Hill in the derby.

Wounded Ankole
Lions on the brink

Mbarara City has the best defence outside the top six but the worst striking line in the division with only fourteen goals to their name. 
Their head coach Sadiq Sempigi recently admitted that it might be very hard to save the team. To win games, you must score goals but with only 14 and your best talisman being a midfielder with only four goals, you’re almost doomed.
Their only four wins came inside their first five games at home and have since drawn six and lost one at their ground. They’ve earned just one point from a possible 30 on the road so, to survive, they can only bank on home ground but that may not be enough since they can host only three. 
Managerial confusion and financial problems have been a big issue causing a high turnover of coaches; they started by losing Sadiq Sempigi, then Kefa Kisala, Hussein Mbalangu before the former returned. 
They also lost their inspirational captain Hillary Mukundane to Vipers but the poor players’ welfare is to blame.

Busoga United bank on Kakindu

A return to their stronghold of Kakindu Stadium provided some relief to coach Abbey Kikomeko and Busoga United.
The team was in a similar situation they are in now in their debut season (2016/17) when they returned to Kakindu and saved their skin winning five and drawing one draw of seven games. Kikomeko will hope for a similar blessing. Busoga lost to URA on their Kakindu return but went pick three wins and two draws in six league games, giving a glimpse of what they are capable of when inside their cauldron.  
They were unlucky to concede a last-minute goal against Bul, bounced back against Tooro and will have to maintain the same rhythm to drill results against UPDF, Wakiso Giants and Gaddafi in their remaining home games to add at least nine more points.

Mental strenth, not cuffs, for Cops
Police are one of the few teams that play beautiful football but their returns aren’t beautiful. Abdallah Mubiru has a task to motivate his players and strengthen them mentally. 
He recently claimed that they are not giving the team their all. The pressure is mounting, especially after their Uganda Cup exit to third-division side Mbale Heroes. Unlike many involved in the relegation dogfight, Police’s problem is not scoring goals.
Juma Balinya has scored 10, Marvin Oshaba five and the trio of Herman Wasswa, Brian Muruli and Tonny Mawejje with three each. Their problem is that they have scored 26 but let in as many.  
That was evident on Tuesday when they surrendered an 11th minute lead to lose 2-1 to Express, including scoring an own goal.
They remain with tricky fixtures against the table shapers and a host of relegation stragglers but from their recent form, it is hard to pick out which fixtures will be comfortable for them.
The troubled Cops have failed against fellow relegation candidates Busoga United, Gaddafi, Bright Stars and UPDF winning only once in eight second round fixtures – a hard-fought one against the weakest team in the division.

Villa need goals, not display of feathers

Coach Petros Koukouras and his Jogoos find themselves in a spot of bother. And they should be. The Jogoos have won only two of their last nine games, including a penalty shootout against Express in the Uganda Cup. 
Koukouras is mainly bothered by their blunt attack. 
Since the turn of the year, they have scored only four goals in over 990 minutes. Of the four, one led to a win, another scraped a point against Tooro and the others consolations in losses. 
The poor returns were evident in their recent 3-1 loss to URA where Koukouras tried to transform orthodox defender Shafiq Bakaki into a striker.
With 25 points, they need to pick at least a nine from their remaining matches, a menu that includes four of the top six teams.
War almost complete for military duo
At the 27-point mark, army side UPDF and Gaddafi carry a better advantage of staying up but there’s still business to do. Six points from the remaining seven should be able to keep them up.
UPDF were on a freefall since last December and had gone 14 league games without a win before pouncing on their ‘half-brother’ Gaddafi with a resounding 3-1 victory in Jinja. 
Coach Brian Ssenyondo and his troops have a decent chance of survival and could afford some few slips here and there but put in mind that they complete their business against URA, Express and survival fighters Mbarara City and Onduparaka.
On paper, Gaddafi has to use whatever chance they get to finish business early. Otherwise, a trip to Arua Hills, Vipers, two derbies versus Bul and Busoga United and KCCA are tricky fixtures. 
They must use their chance to pick whatever is available in those games and ensure they beat Tooro United home and Bright Stars away.