Uganda registers 52% decline in Covid deaths

Uganda has registered a decline in Covid-19 infections and deaths in the last 14 days, Daily Monitor has established.
Ministry of Health statistics portray a 44 per cent decline in new cases (representing 1,831 cases) and a 52 per cent (representing 200 deaths) decline in deaths, two weeks after the 42-day nationwide lockdown which ended on July 29.

Between July 14 and July 27, during the 42-day nationwide lockdown, a total of 4,202 cases of Covid-19 infections were registered.

But in the last 14 days after the lockdown (July 30 and August 12), only a total of 2,371 Covid-19 cases were reported across the country.

The consistent decline in cases contrasts with projections by the National Planning Authority (NPA) that the partial easing of lockdown would cause a surge in infections.

Dr Henry Kajumbula, the head of Infection Control and Prevention at the Ministry of Health scientific advisory committee on Covid-19, however, warned that cases may still increase over time because of increasing violation of Covid-19 preventive measures.

“We need about one month to determine whether easing the lockdown will cause an increase in cases of infections. But the lockdown suppressed transmission of the coronavirus,” Dr Kajumbula said. The 42-day lockdown ran from June 18 to July 30.

Mr Museveni, while announcing the easing of the lockdown restrictions on July 30, said: “[With] partial opening-up (allow economic sectors to operate), this model [by NPA] projects an increased number of cases in the first week to an average of 309 new cases per day and eventually coming down to 85 new cases by the third week. The initial increase of cases is due to the increased movement of people in the opening week.”

However, between July 30 and August 5, the first week after the 42-day lockdown, a total of 1,657 cases of infections were registered, which translates to an average of 236 cases per day, far below the NPA estimate of 309 cases per day.

The decline in cases was also reflected in a few Covid-19 patients in hospitals and subsequently fewer Covid-19 deaths registered. The total number of Covid-19 patients, who are currently hospitalised, stands at 506, which is also higher than the 849 patients that were on admission on July 14.

Dr Rosemary Byanyima, the deputy director of Mulago National Referral Hospital, said  they admit only one patient in a day, which is less than the numbers in June and early July.  

The decline in admissions is also happening at Masaka Regional Referral Hospital, according to management.  
Still during the lockdown, between July 14 and July 27, a total of 383 deaths were registered, and this was higher than the 183 deaths registered between July 30 and August 12 after the lockdown.

Dr Kajumbula said as cases decline during the second wave, the threat of the third wave is imminent.
“To avert the third wave [of Covid-19], the most important thing would be vaccination. [But even if] people are vaccinated, it [the third wave] may come but its impact will be minimal. The people have to adhere to preventive measures,” he said. 

The country has only vaccinated 1.16 million of the planned 21.9 million people to allow for safe reopening of the economy.

Comparison

4,202: Between July 14 and July 27, during the lockdown, a total of 4,202 cases of Covid-19 infections were registered.

2,371: The cases recorded in the last 14 days after the lockdown (July 30 and August 12).