Who is behind the newest rebel group?

On Monday, it was reported that a joint security team arrested the commander of the so-called Uganda Coalition Front for Change (UCFC).
According to reports, UCFC is a newly formed rebel group that has carried out attacks on security personnel.

Formed last year, UCFC has made its insurrectionist bones from allegedly carrying out these attacks in Wakiso, Mityana and Kiboga. Each attack has placed security officers in its crosshairs. 
In September, for instance, it is said that UCFC wielded machetes to assail police officers manning a Fika Salaama roadblock at Kiwumpa village in Luweero District, grievously injuring two police officers, killing one and robbing two guns. 

On Tuesday, a joint security team in Luweero District launched a manhunt for assailants, possibly UCFC once more, who reportedly raided a police station 33km outside Kampala and fatally shot two policemen.
These reports are worrying, but they are not new. 
Over the years, several rebel groups have sprouted across the country. However, we shall examine only one of these because its modus operandi seems similar to the UCFC’s.
In 1995, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) was said to be a rebel movement based in central Uganda. 

It was reportedly “made up mainly of army deserters from Uganda’s largest ethnic group, the Baganda,” and was presumably fighting for the introduction of a federal system in Uganda. 
NDA had been operating around Luweero, led by Herbert Itongwa, a former commander of the National Resistance Army (now the Uganda People’s Defence Forces). Itongwa’s rank was Major and his number, RO100. 
NDA is reputed to have killed then south western regional police commander, Erisa Karakire, and his driver Samwiri Kakonge. 
In the same fashion as the latest rebel group, NDA attacked police and even mounted or attacked roadblocks. 

NDA’s fighters were said to be angry that the army was unfair when it came to promotions and appointments. 
While UCFC could just as easily be composed of ex-soldiers raising their proverbial cudgels against a situation which has not changed. 
That said, these rebel groups seem to continuously arrive on the cusp of major constitutional changes. 
NDA showed up just as the 1995 Constitution was promulgated. Again, UCFC’s martial activities have materialised in the shadow of the Justice and Constitutional Affairs minister Norbert Mao gearing up to constitute a Constitution Review Commission.
This commission is likely to tackle the vexed question regarding whether Uganda should go from a presidential system to a parliamentary one. 

We could chalk these similarities up to mere coincidences. However, as former US president Franklin Roosevelt once said, “In politics, nothing happens by accident. If it happens, you can bet it was planned that way.” 
Thus, if this is a plan, who stands to benefit the most from its outcome and who has the power to devise such a plan? 
It is clear that UCFC will sow just enough insecurity to remind Ugandans that they must circle their wagons around the coming constitutional amendments. 
The centrepiece of which is succession, something that will be guided by government towards an outcome that preserves the National Resistance Movement’s power. 

I will not go as far as saying the system might be internally purging itself by creating a rebel group, but I will venture to opine that some people in the system may be behind this sequel to the late Itongwa’s shenanigans. 
Besides, the said purge would be in keeping with the NRM’s revolutionary tendencies which inadvertently highlight the saying, “the tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.”

Mr Matogo is a professional copywriter  
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