Mao and transition beyond Museveni

Norbert Mao decided to throw his weight, and that of Democratic Party he leads as the chairman general,  behind a mission that he believes in even when it threatens to wipe off his legacy on Uganda’s political scene, by joining the government of the National Resistance Movement.

Mao believes that in joining the government, specifically as the minister of Justice and Constitutional Affairs, he will lead in the process of national unity to incorporate the divergent views of all the sections of Ugandans.

He believes it will bring about national healing, reconciliation and the forming of a new contract between the citizenry and the government.

All this, he says, will guarantee a peaceful transition beyond the man who has been at the helm for the last 36 years, President Museveni, something that has not happened in Uganda since independence.

To many innocent Ugandans, this is puzzling mystery. How is Mao, an opposition politician who has participated in and lost elections to Museveni going to be able to guarantee a transition from the same man that has stifled the space for the opposition. How on earth does he even start to make any substantial decisions that will limit the stay of President Museveni in a game that he has mastered since his university days more than five decades ago? Norbert must be a joke, they think.

And you see, this is because for the bigger section of the Ugandan elite, especially in the opposition, the transition past Museveni means doing away with the whole system built from when the National Resistance Army took power in 1986.

That the whole superstructure of the state that has been put in place by the regime, must crumble down and be done away with.

This, they say, would mean a transition from Museveni’s authoritarian rule to a new Uganda of shining liberal democracy with total respect for human rights and freedoms, framed by the Western construct which informs most of their thinking. It is this group that would not conceive, entirely, the meaning of Mao entering Museveni’s government in pursuit of a transition.

This is because they have not given enough thought to the second school of thought which I am trying to deal with here.

The National Resistance Army that took power in 1986, formed government and consolidated power for now close to four decades, no matter the changes that have happened internally over the years with the exit of some members and the recruitment of new ones, has largely thrived on the shoulders of a visionary, who conceived the idea, provided leadership to the group and has been at the helm of the Ugandan state for 36 years.

But then issues arise. Questions demand answers. Is Museveni still strong enough to drive forward the aspirations of this establishment? What if an outsider, snatches the steering wheel and opens a “war” against the whole system? What about the different factions within that are ready to fight for power?

It is this second section that looks to a transition beyond Museveni but without offsetting the equilibrium to usher in new forces that could overwhelm the current establishment. What about the shedding of blood to take power? This has been the case for all the past changes of government. Can it be avoided? Maybe, yes.

How then is it possible to effectively transition from Museveni to the next head of state without the use of violence? What processes could be expected to take place to usher in this without allowing a shift in the centre of power? What current stumbling blocks are against those processes that have taken a whole chairman general of the Democratic Party to become the minister of Justice and Constitutional Affairs in a negotiation arrangement, which he sees as the only hope for a peaceful transition beyond Museveni?

For all these questions, my guess is as good as yours - only time will tell.

Seith Kangume Barigye

[email protected]